VS
Portuguese squad arrives at this 5th round's tough clash in better situation than other years, when they struggle so much to qualify for European Championship or WC. At this point, they are in position to avoid the playoffs and go throught in first place of group I. We are talking about points, because Fernando Santos' men are playing like a portuguese national team is used to play: courage, determination and... nothing impressive.
After a dissapointing WC, Portugal opened this qualy with a disturbing 0:1 at home against Albania. Then, they managed to take some vital points winning in 90th minute in Kobenhavn, 72th minute in Algarve against Armenia, and the last victory 2:1 in Lisboa vs Serbia. Efficient team, maybe dull team, but pragmatic, at the end. This saturday they traveled to Armenia (after some days in a hospitable Georgia) without Pepe and Bosingwa. Both places will be taked, probably, by Ricardo Carvalho and Cedric. This means that Fabio Coentrao will be moved to midfielder. Coentrao played well in this position with Portugal, scoring 2nd goal against Serbia in a 2:1 victory, but personally, I don'k like these kind of player in midfield, especially when you have to be creative against a team that enjoy playing counter-attacks.
Talking about counter-attacks... in my opinion the couple Carvalho - Bruno Alves is not the best possible center back pair to play this type of game, so maybe the newcomer Carriço could play in a 4-defensive line with Cedric - Bruno Alves - Carriço/Carvalho - Eliseu. Apart from defensive issues, the very big problem in this NT is the '9' position. No real strikers in this country when seems that the time for Hugo Almeida and Helder Postiga has spent. Very good wingers, but when you have to attack positionally, is not the best way put a player like Danny among 5 armenian defenders. In my opinion, I prefer Cristiano jumping and fighting in this position, and Danny - Quaresma (maybe the starter right winger in that game) crossing or drawing diagonals.
I can't talk about Cristiano Ronaldo and his role in these portuguese team. I always thought that your better player has to come into play as soon as possible, and stay at the spotlight, be inluential in the team's gamestyle. As Menotti said when he talks about Argentina in the 80's, the motto is "how we are to play today, guys? No answer? Ok, so let's pass the ball to Maradona. How many balls? Many balls as possible". Is the way I think CR has to play in each team he join it. Unfortunately for him, he want to smash all the balls against the goal instead attrackt defenders in order to liberate some teammates and create free spaces (as Lebron in basketball, Messi in soccer, etc). Therefore... that is what we have.
Ok, Armenia. Only 1 point out 12, but they work very well first 60' minutes of each game. Large defense, some quality attackers and, definitely, a worker team, as Portugal. They won until 60' minute in Denmark. After that minute, they concede 2 goals in 15' to lose 2:1 in opening game. Later, Zoran Tosic scored in Armenia at the injury time for Serbia to equalize the game (1:1) and take away 2 points. In november they lost 1:0 with CR goal in 72' minute as I said before... and finally, in the last game in Albania, they won until 77th minute 0:1, one player got the second yellow card and was ejected. After this, 2 quick goals from Albania, and another 2:1 defeat. That's Armenia, a competitive NT, but incapable to keep the score in final minutes.
For me, possible under2.5 game, maybe Armenia +1.5, but trends suggest a turning point in the middle of 2n half, when the 5 defensive men are used to be more tired, and gaps are opened for talented portuguese's wingers. For this reason, i am going to take this Armenia +0.5 at half time, because I expect good host defense in first minutes of game, combined by the lack of creativity that Portugal shows sometimes, Cristiano Ronaldo (I don't know if he is fit at all, but I assume that CR at 50% is enough to be dangerous) trying ways to score himself, maybe wigh longshots, headers, free kicks... but I don't expect a particularly good team play in Portugal. Besides, Armenia is good at counters, so is not necessary that first half ends 0-0.
Plus:
- Last meeting ended with 1:0 for Portugal. 2 times these teams played before in Armenia: both matches tied (0-0 and 1-1, a long time ago)
- Portugal has won their last 4 games out of home in Qualy's.
- Portugal won at half time 1/12 last games in Qualy's (2:3 against Dinamarca, June 2012)
- Armenia last win in a competitive game was in October 2013, 2:1 against Bulgaria.
- Armenian striker Yura Movysusyan is doubtiful (armenian federation seems don't like too much to write about his issues).
Armenia vs Portugal betting tips Armenia vs Portugal betting tips conclusion Stake 6 Stake: 6/10
Pick Armenia +0.5 at Half Time
Odds 1.85
